We’re officially one week away from the NFL Draft (April 25-27) kicking off in prime-time in the Motor City.
This is my penultimate mock draft of the season. My final version will be posted next Wednesday evening.
I’m not factoring trades into this version, but I will be discussing the possibilities throughout.
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There’s still plenty of uncertainty (outside of the first pick), but some things have come into better focus.
There’s no time to lose. Let’s get right into it.
MOCK PREAMBLE
This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they’d match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I’ll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I was the third-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I’m tied for first overall (out of 172) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL’s second season — the NFL doesn’t have an off-season — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here’s an updated version of my 2024 NFL Mock Draft:
First round
1. Chicago from Carolina (2-15) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC, Jr.
Nothing’s official until the commissioner says the name, but the draft really begins with the second overall pick. Top needs: QB, Edge, OL
2. Washington (4-13) — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, So.
According to The MMQB’s Albert Breer, the Commanders hosted Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. as part of a large group of prospects coming together for top-30 visits this week. Apparently they all spent Tuesday night at Topgolf and Wednesday at the team facility. This is different. And interesting. And kind of weird, but we’ll see how it plays out. The pick comes down to Maye or Daniels, and while bettors and sports books are growing increasingly confident the choice will be the Heisman Trophy winner, I’m sticking with the Tar Heel (at least for another week). His prototypical size, elite arm talent and ability as a runner are the combination of tools teams normally invest a pick this valuable in. Top needs: QB, Edge, T
3. New England (4-13) — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, Sr.
Eliot Wolf, the top executive in charge of personnel, now has control of the 53-man roster and will reportedly be working closely with new head coach Jerod Mayo. I still believe the Patriots will make a pick here and it will probably be whomever Washington doesn’t select between Daniels and Drake Maye, but unlike the Commanders, Wolf will probably truly entertain trading down if the price is right. The “Godfather” offer could come from the Raiders, who covet Daniels and pick 10 picks lower. The price tag: the 13th pick, Las Vegas’ second-rounder, and its 2025 and 2026 first-rounders. Teams have to a pay a premium to trade up into the top-5 and draft a quarterback. New England would then target an offensive tackle at No. 13, but I don’t see anything happening unless it’s a deal of this magnitude. Daniels’ skill-set and stature is very reminiscent of three-time All-Pro QB Randall Cunningham. Top needs: QB, T, WR
4. Arizona (4-13) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St., Jr.
Harrison to the Cardinals feels inevitable. If you were to “Weird Science” a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce the No. 1 player on my Big Board. Many have suggested lightning could strike twice for GM Monti Ossenfort, and he could do a deal with the Vikings here so they could grab a QB, and then trade back up, perhaps with the Chargers, and select Harrison. Almost exactly what Ossenfort did last season in drafting another Buckeyes standout, offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. Honestly, what are the odds? Arizona already has 11 picks in this draft. It’s more plausible the Cardinals just take their guy here. Top needs: WR, G, DL
5. L.A. Chargers (5-12) — Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame, Jr.
For me, this pick still comes down to a pass catcher or pass protector. Either way, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz will have franchise QB Justin Herbert’s best interests in mind. I can’t fathom them passing on Harrison if he’s still available. Perhaps they auction off the pick to the Vikings, Broncos or potentially the Giants so one of those teams can draft J.J. McCarthy. Do a deal with the G-Men, stockpiling more draft assets and still getting your guy the following pick would be a feather in the cap of Hortiz. Otherwise, Alt cemented his elite status at the combine in Indy. Top needs: WR, T, DL
6. New York Giants (6-11) — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, Jr.
The G-Men will definitely be working the phones, trying to move up for a quarterback, but it won’t be J.J. McCarthy. If Drake Maye is available at No. 3, I could see GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll pushing all their chips into the middle of the table, and striking a deal with the Patriots to secure Maye as Daniel Jones’ replacement. Big Blue hasn’t had a true No. 1 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. so why not go back to that Louisiana well. Nabers is elite after the catch and a terror in the open field. Top needs: WR, CB, RB
7. Tennessee (6-11) — Olu Fashanu, T, Penn St., Jr.
There’s a good chance Joe Alt is the player the Chargers have been targeting all along, and a possibility Alt is in play for the Giants at No. 6 if he’s still available. GM Ran Carthon might have to turn elsewhere to upgrade starting QB Will Levis’ protection. Fashanu and Levis were teammates for the tackle’s freshman season in Happy Valley before the QB transferred to Kentucky. You may have noticed Fashanu being drafted in the middle of most recent mock drafts, and not in the top-10. Frankly, I’m a little perplexed. There’s still room for improvement in the run game, but when its all said and done, he could end up being this draft’s best pure pass-protector. Top needs: T, DL, S
8. Atlanta (7-10) — Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
It’s very possible there’s only one defender drafted in the top-10 and if a team decides to leapfrog the Bears for one of the top-3 receivers or an offensive tackle, we may not get that. If GM Terry Fontenot rebuffs those trade overtures and the Falcons do take the only defender in the early part of the first round, it would be the first time since the merger (1970) there was only one. Only two defenders were drafted in 1971, 1983, 1995 and 2021. The Last time was 1969, when “Mean” Joe Greene was selected by the Steelers at No. 4 and that was it. Turner’s impressive performance in Indianapolis — 4.46 40-yard dash and a 40.5 inch vertical jump — validated the former five-star recruit’s immense potential at the next level. Top needs: Edge, DL, T
9. Chicago (7-10) — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, Jr.
GM Ryan Poles currently only has four draft picks to play with ... well, three after the Bears draft Caleb Williams, so trading down definitely makes sense. Maybe someone wants Odunze or Brock Bowers? In this scenario, J.J. McCarthy is still available. Otherwise, Odunze features elite size, speed and strength with excellent hands and Keenan Allen is only signed for another season. Even if Chicago extends him, Allen will turn 32 on the last day of the draft. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR
10. New York Jets (7-10) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, Jr.
GM Joe Douglas solidified the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses. Pairing Mike Williams with Garrett Wilson could give the Jets one of the most formidable receiving duos in the NFL once Williams is healthy. Why not add another playmaker for Aaron Rodgers? If Rodgers has a say (and I think he does), I believe the two-time Mackey Award winner would be his choice. Top needs: S, T, WR
11. Minnesota (7-10) — JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan, Jr.
By securing the No. 23 overall pick from the Texans, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has enough trade ammunition to jump into the top-5 and draft a QB. The problem is Drake Maye is their top target and he’s only in play if he falls to the third-pick because the Commanders aren’t dealing. If he goes No. 2 overall or the Patriots draft him at three, then it becomes a Will They or Won’t They with teams looking to trade back to see if they can land McCarthy. Here, McCarthy falls in their lap. Top needs: Edge, G, QB
12. Denver (8-9) — Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, Sr.
With Russell Wilson officially out of the picture, coach Sean Payton will be searching for his type of quarterback, but McCarthy is off the board. The Broncos have eight picks in this draft, but they don’t have a second-rounder, which might hinder them trading up. It also could force their hand in taking Nix here. Preferably, GM George Paton would be able to trade down in this scenario and still draft the Heisman finalist. Top needs: QB, C, CB
13. Las Vegas (8-9) — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.
Could the Raiders pull the trigger on Penix here if they fail in trading up for Jayden Daniels? Possibly, he certainly fits the type of vertical offense coach Antonio Pierce talked about wanting in his introductory press conference. Plus, in this scenario, the gunslinger is the last man standing for potential starting QBs in this draft class. An NFL team without a franchise quarterback is a lot like a wounded animal. When an animal is injured, it may be in pain and may feel threatened, which can make it more aggressive than it would be otherwise. Top needs: CB, G, QB
14. New Orleans (9-8) — JC Latham, T, Alabama, Jr.
The Saints currently have two former first-rounders on their offensive line who aren’t playing up to their potential. Tackle Trevor Penning, who took a major step back in his second season after a really good rookie year, and guard Cesar Ruiz. Latham is a super-sized tackle with elite strength and the movement skills of a Pro Bowl-caliber guard. Top needs: CB, DL, WR
15. Indianapolis (9-8) — Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa, Jr.
The Colts finished 16th last season in passing yards allowed despite having the fifth-most sacks. DeJean can play inside or outside at cornerback, and even safety due to his size and speed combo. He’s also one of this draft’s premier playmakers. Top needs: S, LB, WR
16. Seattle (9-8) — Troy Fautanu, T, Washington, Jr.
GM John Schneider will look to upgrade the interior of a potentially dominant offensive line assuming tackle Abraham Lucas can stay healthy. Fautanu is a Pro Bowl-level talent who is versatile enough to play anywhere on the O-line. Top needs: G, DL, TE
17. Jacksonville (9-8) — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo, Jr.
The Jaguars haven’t had a true shutdown corner since they traded Jalen Ramsey. Mitchell features elite speed (4.33 40-yard dash in Indy) and prototypical size for the position. He’s a proven ball-hawk who can play outside or inside and wins with top-tier athleticism and physicality. He produced six interceptions and 44 passes defensed the past two seasons. Top needs: CB, OL, CB
18. Cincinnati (9-8) — Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas, Jr.
Free agency created two major voids for the Bengals with the losses of offensive tackle Jonah Williams and defensive tackle DJ Reader. Murphy is a former four-star recruit who shares a similar skill-set and physical traits with Baltimore Ravens All-Pro Justin Madubuike. Top needs: WR, T, DL
19. L.A. Rams (10-7) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida St., Jr.
We witnessed the Rams’ defense undergo a youth movement last season, and that will continue into 2024 after future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Donald decided he had better things to do than haunt the dreams of opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Verse would’ve likely been a first-round pick had he declared after last season. He regularly wins with strength, and features violent hands with NFL-caliber explosiveness at the snap. Verse, Kobie Turner and Byron Young would create a formidable young trio on the defensive line. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB
20. Pittsburgh (10-7) — Amarius Mims, T, Georgia, Jr.
With the QB questions laid to rest, GM Omar Khan still must find a center and a replacement for Dan Moore Jr. at tackle in this draft. Mims is still very raw, and he dealt with multiple ankle injuries last season, but he towers over most of the competition and he moves easy considering his size. His athletic potential and his 2022 tape will be hard to ignore. Top needs: WR, C, T
21. Miami (11-6) — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois, Jr.
The Raiders set Christian Wilkins’ soul on fire to the tune of $110 million, and now the Dolphins have a significant hole on their interior D-line. Newton may be undersized for some teams, but he’s been a disruptive force the last two seasons against the run and pass. GM Chris Grier could potentially move back a bit and still land Newton the way the draft board is stacking. Especially with Terrion Arnold and Brian Thomas Jr. still available. Miami only has six picks in the draft and none in the third or fourth rounds. Top needs: DL, G, Edge
22. Philadelphia (11-6) — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama, So.
GM Howie Roseman has traded the Eagles’ first pick in seven of the last 10 drafts, so that’s always a possibility. I could also see Roseman getting a head start on finding Lane Johnson’s eventual replacement, but Philly’s aging secondary struggled mightily last season, especially down the stretch. Based on upside, Arnold could be the top cornerback on some draft boards. He’s relatively inexperienced — he was a former safety recruit — but he’s been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage. I know he’s not a Georgia Bulldog, but at least he’s from the SEC. Top needs: CB, LB, S
23. Minnesta from Houston via Cleveland (11-6) — Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA, Sr.
If the Vikings aren’t able to trade up for a quarterback, they’ll likely use this pick to find Danielle Hunter’s replacement. Latu specializes in hand-to-hand combat, features a pro-ready arsenal of pass-rush moves and became the first Bruin to win the Lombardi Award (outstanding lineman) and Hendricks Award (best defensive end) last season. Medical evaluations of a neck injury the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year suffered during his time with Washington will have a big impact on his draft stock. Top needs: Edge, G, QB
24. Dallas (12-5) — Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon St., Jr.
The Cowboys offensive line is in rebuilding mode after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in free agency. Fuaga is a well-rounded mauler and will likely be the Beavers’ first offensive lineman ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Drafting him would allow Dallas to keep Tyler Smith at guard, where he earned second-team All-Pro honors in 2023. Top needs: RB, C, WR
25. Green Bay (9-8) — Graham Barton, OL, Duke, Sr.
Following the departures of David Bakhtiari and Jon Runyan Jr., refurbishing the offensive line is now a priority for the Packers. I believe Barton could thrive anywhere on the O-line in the NFL. Some scouts will question his size/length for the tackle position — he’s 6-5, 313 pounds, but his arms measured a tick under 33 inches. He features the versatility GM Brian Gutekunst targets in offensive linemen with 34 of his 39 career starts were at left tackle with the Blue Devils (the other five were at center). He’s a technically sound, sticky blocker with quickness and competitive tendencies that will likely land him in the first round. Top needs: G, S, CB
26. Tampa Bay (9-8) — Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon, Jr.
The Buccaneers need to address the center position after former Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen retired. Powers-Johnson entered the Senior Bowl as a fringe first-rounder, and only helped himself with his performance. He was an unanimous All-American and first-ever Pac-12 player to win the Rimington Award (nation’s top center). JPJ dominated at both guard and center during practices in Mobile. Top needs: Edge, IOL, CB
27. Arizona from Houston (10-7) — Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn St., Jr.
The Cardinals landed the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with the No. 4 overall pick. Here coach Jonathan Gannon receives more talent for his defensive line. Robinson’s still developing his technique, but his first-step explosiveness and speed-to-power variation is a rare commodity. Top needs: WR, G, DL
28. Buffalo (11-6) — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU, Jr.
Frankly, if Thomas is available in the picks 20 to 22 range, I could see GM Brandon Beane jump up to grab him after trading away Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency. Thomas’ physical gifts are off the charts. He’s 6-foot-2, and he ran a 4.33 40-yard-dash while hitting 22.91 mph on the GPS at the combine. Catching passes from Josh Allen could put him on a fast track to super-stardom. Top needs: S, Edge, WR
29. Detroit (12-5) — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama, Jr.
With one of the best offenses in football, it’s clear GM Brad Holmes will continue to focus on building an equally talented defense, and the Lions recently released cornerback Cameron Sutton. McKinstry started as a true freshman in a Nick Saban defense and was first-team All-SEC his sophom*ore season. He features prototypical size with speed and brings physicality in coverage and against the run. There’s no panic in his game. He’s also provides value as a punt-returner. Top needs: Edge, G, CB
30. Baltimore (13-4) — Tyler Guyton, T, Oklahoma, Jr.
Kevin Zeiter, Morgan Moses and John Simpson will all play for different teams next season. Guyton is a former defensive end who primarily played right tackle for the Sooners, but has the prototypical size and premium athletic traits to switch to the left side in the pros. Ronnie Staley has missed 36 games due to injuries over the past four season. Top needs: WR, G, Edge
31. San Francisco (12-5) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson, Jr.
The Niners’ top three corners (Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas) will all be free agents after next season. Wiggins might need to add some strength to his frame, but he already has elite ball skills, premium athletic abilities and is capable of thriving in man or zone coverage. Top needs: T, G, CB
32. Kansas City (11-6) — Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas, Jr.
It looks like Rashee Rice’s legal troubles aren’t going away anytime soon, and Marquise Brown will be a free agent after next season. Worthy is an elite vertical threat who can struggle against physical press coverage, but you can’t teach his world-class speed. Building up his play strength in the NFL and catching passes from Patrick Mahomes could unlock another level. Top needs: T, Edge, WR
